Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.) lost his bid for a 15th term Tuesday in a primary defeat that further affirms the anti-incumbent sentiment coursing through the country.He is the first House member to lose a reelection bid in the 2010 campaign, and his defeat comes days after Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) was knocked off the November ballot in that state's convention process.
ollohan hadn't faced a serious primary fight in more than a decade and was seen in some circles as unbeatable, given that the state's 1st Congressional District seat had been in his family since 1968. (His father held it for seven terms before he won it.)But state Sen. Mike Oliverio ran hard against Mollohan's entrenched-incumbent status and made much of the lingering whiff of ethics problems that dogged the congressman for years.
With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Oliverio had 56 percent of the vote to Mollohan's 44 percent. In November, he will face former state delegate David McKinley, who won the Republican primary Tuesday night.
The Democratic race had become very nasty in its final weeks, with Oliverio referring to Mollohan as "one of the most corrupt members of Congress" and the incumbent retorting that his opponent was "lying" and "spreading right-wing smears."
State and national strategists warned Mollohan regularly of the threat that Oliverio posed, but the congressman, several sources said, ran a campaign suited to the early 1990s rather than 2010, in terms of its sophistication.
Republicans had made clear that they preferred to run against Mollohan and must now reorient their strategy. Besides being damaged by ethics allegations over the past few years, Mollohan had drawn opposition for his vote in favor of President Obama's health-care bill.
A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that less than a third of voters said they plan to back their current member of Congress -- numbers that haven't been seen in Post-ABC data since the Republican-dominated election of 1994.
Just how bad the situation is for incumbents will be tested in a serious way next Tuesday, when Democratic Sens. Arlen Specter (Pa.) and Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) attempt to fend off primary challenges. renaissance2010
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Specter features Obama in ad as Sestak advances
Having lost his once-comfortable lead in the Democratic Senate primary, Sen. Arlen Specter played his trump card Tuesday: President Obama.
Specter "helped pull us back from the brink" with his decisive vote last year for the economic stimulus, Obama says in a new 30-second TV ad. "I love Arlen Specter."
The image, from a September fund-raiser, counters Rep. Joe Sestak's footage of President George W. Bush endorsing Specter as a "firm ally" in the 2004 Republican primary - a stark reminder that Specter switched parties last year. Sestak's ad also uses Specter's own words from news clips saying he became a Democrat last year "to get reelected."
Specter changed parties out of concern he might lose a Republican primary. But now, he's imperiled in a Democratic one.
A Muhlenberg College-Morning Call nightly tracking poll released Tuesday showed that Sestak had edged ahead of Specter, 47 percent to 43 percent. That is within the survey's margin of error of 5 percentage points, but the challenger's advantage in the poll has grown steadily since late last week.
Similarly, a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Thursday showed Sestak at 47 percent and Specter at 42 percent, with a 4.5-point margin of error. And a Franklin and Marshall College poll to be released Wednesday is expected to show Sestak's numbers exceeding Specter's for the first time in that poll.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Obama had no plans for another campaign trip to Pennsylvania for Specter before Tuesday's primary, dampening hopes for a weekend get-out-the-vote rally in Philadelphia.
Analysts say Specter, a five-term senator, has been caught up in an anti-incumbent mood, compounded by his April 2009 party switch, which has fed into Sestak's chief narrative that Specter is an untrustworthy opportunist.
"The wave against incumbents is of great concern," Specter acknowledged while campaigning in Philadelphia on Monday. On Saturday, three-term Utah Sen. Robert Bennett was denied the Republican nomination for reelection. Conservative activists angry at Washington toppled him at his state's GOP convention.
On the other hand, incumbents and party-endorsed candidates in both parties triumphed last week in primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.
"I am surprised at the depth of anti-incumbent feeling," Gov. Rendell said Tuesday. He said Specter was the state's "most visible incumbent."
With the contest razor-close, Specter could yet stage a surge, with analysts saying his greatest reservoir of strength is deep support in Philadelphia, particularly among African American voters.
"The race has tightened - we knew it would," Specter campaign manager Chris Nicholas said. He declined to discuss polls, saying that there was so much volatility "you get twisted like a pretzel" trying to parse them.
The Muhlenberg poll uses strict screening to pick likely primary voters: Respondents must be registered Democrats, say they definitely plan to go to the polls Tuesday, and have voted in the last midterm election in which they were eligible to do so. The latest poll, taken Friday through Monday, surveyed 401 people.
Pollster Chris Borick said the criteria may exclude African Americans, younger voters, and Democrats who registered for the first time and surged to the polls to participate in the competitive 2008 Pennsylvania presidential primary and to support Obama.
"We absolutely make assumptions about who's going to turn out - it's not an exact science," Borick said Tuesday. "Past performance suggests that people who come out and register for the first time to vote for president don't usually show up in high percentages for midterms, but we could be wrong."
Specter will have some advantages on primary day, including extensive get-out-the-vote operations on the ground, with union members plus workers from county Democratic organizations, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and, in Philadelphia, Rep. Chaka Fattah's field operation.
"I personally don't see an energized Democratic base this year," Borick said, "but turnout is the wild card."
Specter's campaign has sought to frame the race as a referendum on Sestak, with ads alleging Sestak was fired from a top Pentagon job in 2005 for creating a "poor command climate" among subordinates. Sestak has denied the account, and his campaign responded with an ad in which veterans call Specter a liar.
Sestak's 127 missed votes last year, one of the highest totals in the House, and his paying most of his campaign staff less than the minimum wage also came under scrutiny in Specter attack ads.
But nothing has seemed to slow Sestak's rise, with the percentage of voters holding an unfavorable view of him increasing only slightly. Specter is such a known quantity in Pennsylvania public life that the race has always been a referendum on him, analysts say.
The irony of Specter's predicament is that many Democrats believe he would have a better chance of appealing to independents and moderate Republicans in the general election.
"I don't think they'd be there for Sestak in the general election," Rendell said.
Democratic media consultant Larry Ceisler said: "Arlen is built for general elections, not for primaries. That's always been the case. Why should it surprise anyone that an independent centrist would have problems from the right in a Republican primary and from the left in a Democratic primary?"cherish
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Specter "helped pull us back from the brink" with his decisive vote last year for the economic stimulus, Obama says in a new 30-second TV ad. "I love Arlen Specter."
The image, from a September fund-raiser, counters Rep. Joe Sestak's footage of President George W. Bush endorsing Specter as a "firm ally" in the 2004 Republican primary - a stark reminder that Specter switched parties last year. Sestak's ad also uses Specter's own words from news clips saying he became a Democrat last year "to get reelected."
Specter changed parties out of concern he might lose a Republican primary. But now, he's imperiled in a Democratic one.
A Muhlenberg College-Morning Call nightly tracking poll released Tuesday showed that Sestak had edged ahead of Specter, 47 percent to 43 percent. That is within the survey's margin of error of 5 percentage points, but the challenger's advantage in the poll has grown steadily since late last week.
Similarly, a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Thursday showed Sestak at 47 percent and Specter at 42 percent, with a 4.5-point margin of error. And a Franklin and Marshall College poll to be released Wednesday is expected to show Sestak's numbers exceeding Specter's for the first time in that poll.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Obama had no plans for another campaign trip to Pennsylvania for Specter before Tuesday's primary, dampening hopes for a weekend get-out-the-vote rally in Philadelphia.
Analysts say Specter, a five-term senator, has been caught up in an anti-incumbent mood, compounded by his April 2009 party switch, which has fed into Sestak's chief narrative that Specter is an untrustworthy opportunist.
"The wave against incumbents is of great concern," Specter acknowledged while campaigning in Philadelphia on Monday. On Saturday, three-term Utah Sen. Robert Bennett was denied the Republican nomination for reelection. Conservative activists angry at Washington toppled him at his state's GOP convention.
On the other hand, incumbents and party-endorsed candidates in both parties triumphed last week in primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.
"I am surprised at the depth of anti-incumbent feeling," Gov. Rendell said Tuesday. He said Specter was the state's "most visible incumbent."
With the contest razor-close, Specter could yet stage a surge, with analysts saying his greatest reservoir of strength is deep support in Philadelphia, particularly among African American voters.
"The race has tightened - we knew it would," Specter campaign manager Chris Nicholas said. He declined to discuss polls, saying that there was so much volatility "you get twisted like a pretzel" trying to parse them.
The Muhlenberg poll uses strict screening to pick likely primary voters: Respondents must be registered Democrats, say they definitely plan to go to the polls Tuesday, and have voted in the last midterm election in which they were eligible to do so. The latest poll, taken Friday through Monday, surveyed 401 people.
Pollster Chris Borick said the criteria may exclude African Americans, younger voters, and Democrats who registered for the first time and surged to the polls to participate in the competitive 2008 Pennsylvania presidential primary and to support Obama.
"We absolutely make assumptions about who's going to turn out - it's not an exact science," Borick said Tuesday. "Past performance suggests that people who come out and register for the first time to vote for president don't usually show up in high percentages for midterms, but we could be wrong."
Specter will have some advantages on primary day, including extensive get-out-the-vote operations on the ground, with union members plus workers from county Democratic organizations, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and, in Philadelphia, Rep. Chaka Fattah's field operation.
"I personally don't see an energized Democratic base this year," Borick said, "but turnout is the wild card."
Specter's campaign has sought to frame the race as a referendum on Sestak, with ads alleging Sestak was fired from a top Pentagon job in 2005 for creating a "poor command climate" among subordinates. Sestak has denied the account, and his campaign responded with an ad in which veterans call Specter a liar.
Sestak's 127 missed votes last year, one of the highest totals in the House, and his paying most of his campaign staff less than the minimum wage also came under scrutiny in Specter attack ads.
But nothing has seemed to slow Sestak's rise, with the percentage of voters holding an unfavorable view of him increasing only slightly. Specter is such a known quantity in Pennsylvania public life that the race has always been a referendum on him, analysts say.
The irony of Specter's predicament is that many Democrats believe he would have a better chance of appealing to independents and moderate Republicans in the general election.
"I don't think they'd be there for Sestak in the general election," Rendell said.
Democratic media consultant Larry Ceisler said: "Arlen is built for general elections, not for primaries. That's always been the case. Why should it surprise anyone that an independent centrist would have problems from the right in a Republican primary and from the left in a Democratic primary?"cherish
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